First, what is investment research? We can think of it as the process of thinking and planning before taking action. Simply put, it is about how to choose projects, deciding which to participate in and which not to, because we cannot participate in all of them. For example, why do projects that other experts participate in perform excellently, while the ones I participate in do not yield good results? Assuming each person can participate in ten projects per week, the success rate for experts might be 70%, while mine is only 30%. This is the core of investment research. Nowadays, the airdrop industry is no longer an era of casual participation or blind following. Even if experts selflessly share, we cannot fully track all projects. Especially with the rise of content mining, distinguishing between true and false information has become even more challenging. Therefore, how to choose projects and invest in them has become a key issue.
1. Timing (Early Stage)#
Early involvement ensures compliance with airdrop snapshot rules; otherwise, even if you try hard later, it will be difficult to make up the gap.
"The earlier you participate in all dApps within the ecosystem, the more potential rewards you can obtain."
The early stage is crucial; if I miss the opportunity for early involvement, I would rather give up on the project, as it is likely to be in vain.
Three examples:#
- ① In the StarkNet project, I got involved too late, missing the minimum airdrop conditions by just a few days.
- ② In the zkBridge project, I only entered after the Panda King Odyssey ended, so I did not obtain the Panda King NFT required for the key airdrop criteria, receiving only a small low-tier reward.
- ③ In the Initia project, I was unable to join later because I did not participate in the first phase, resulting in zero returns.
2. Investment Amount and Team Endorsement (Market Consensus)#
- Projects that have raised over ten million yuan and are led by top institutions like a16z and Binance Labs often have more generous airdrops.
- Projects that are key components of public chains (like DEX) and have participation or endorsement from them, such as Jupiter on Solana and Walrus on Sui, often come with higher premiums when launching airdrops.
The investment amount and team background must be strong enough (this is also the follow-up in the primary market and market consensus).
- ① For example, projects that have raised over ten million dollars and are led by top institutions like a16z or Binance usually perform better. Projects invested by Binance have a high probability of being listed on Binance, as Binance is a leading trading platform in the crypto market, providing higher premiums and exit liquidity.
- ② Regarding team support, for critical components of public chains, such as DEX (equivalent to the limbs of public chains), if they receive participation or support from the public chain team, the wealth effect is usually significant. For instance, Jupiter's position in Solana and Walrus's position in Sui often see higher premiums during airdrops. The logic is that when the project has sufficient funds, the airdrop will also be more generous.
3. Track Imagination (Mainstream + Core)#
- Aligning with current mainstream narratives (like L2 in 2023, DEX in 2024) helps attract hot money and community participation.
- "Content mining" has become a hot track in 2025, where anyone can publish articles and earn rewards, thus driving heat and capital inflow.
Track imagination (aligning with mainstream and core is also the style of current market profit effects).
For example, L2 in 2023 targets Ethereum scaling, DEX in 2024 is mainstream narrative, and content mining in 2025 allows everyone to become a KOL, earning rewards through project research and posting on Twitter, which can attract hot money speculation and capital participation, as well as good community involvement and popularity.
4. Cost Accounting (Difficulty Level)#
- For small players with limited funds, low-threshold, zero-lockup projects are optimal, losing only time without losing principal.
- Over-staking or relying on interaction types like check-ins can lead to total loss due to a single contract accident.
Cost accounting (profit-loss ratio). If a project is very good, but as an individual, I cannot participate, then it may not be a good project. For example, check-in type projects are unfavorable for those without technical means; staking type projects are difficult to ensure safety and risk control for small funds, which may earn interest nine times out of ten, but a single theft by the project party could lead to total loss. Therefore, I prefer projects with lower costs, losing only time and not money.
We know that to achieve results in airdrops, we need to select projects well in the early stage, continuously track and execute in the mid-stage, and only then can we reap results in the later stage.
As the returns in the airdrop industry decline in 2024, the number of participants in airdrops in 2025 is decreasing overall, with more and more people exiting this long-cycle, high-investment, time-consuming activity. Those who remain are gradually turning to targeted airdrops (like exchanges) and small investment airdrops (more and more people are becoming KOLs).
For those who are still committed to participating in airdrops, investment research may no longer be just about looking at financing and teams, but requires more strategies. Perhaps when this distribution method gradually disappears, new narratives will take its place. For now, we can only continue moving forward; only by participating personally can we know if it is feasible and discern who is deceiving.
However, the method of participation that is certain, low-difficulty, saves time and energy, and allows manual operation of hundreds of accounts may no longer exist. Where do we go from here? This is a question worth pondering.
from——@Beijing Teacher
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